A common assumption in the firearms policy debate is that increasing numbers of legally owned firearms lead to greater risks to public safety. It is an argument often presented as self-evident. Yet when the available data is examined, the relationship between lawful firearm ownership and violent crime is far less straightforward than many assume.
Over the past two decades, the number of legally owned firearms in Australia has steadily increased. Estimates suggest there were around 2.1 million registered firearms nationally in the early 2000s. Today that figure is closer to four million.
If the presence of more legally owned firearms directly increased community risk, the expectation would be that firearm-related violence would rise alongside those numbers. The available evidence does not show that pattern.
Research examining long-term trends has consistently found that firearm crime in Australia has declined during the same period that legal firearm ownership has grown. Dr Samara McPhedran, Principal Research Fellow at Griffith University, has analysed national data and found that while firearm licences and registrations have increased over time, firearm crime has continued to fall.
NSW Data Confirms Decline
Firearm crime rate per 100,000 calculated from BOCSAR data. Average annual rate per 100,000, calculated across murder, attempted murder, non-domestic assault, domestic assault, and robbery involving firearms.
In New South Wales, crime statistics published by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research provide detailed information on serious offences involving firearms, including murder, attempted murder, robbery and assault. When the BOCSAR dataset covering the period from 2005 to 2025 is examined, the rate of violent firearm crime shows a gradual downward trend.
During that same period, the number of registered firearms in the state has increased according to reporting from the NSW Police Firearms Registry. Taken together, these figures point to an important observation. The growth in lawful firearm ownership has not been accompanied by an increase in violent firearm crime.
Data sources and notes: Firearm crime data from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), “Firearm and Knife Violence” dataset, April 2005 – March 2025. Figures are average annual rates per 100,000, calculated across murder, attempted murder, non-domestic assault, domestic assault, and robbery involving firearms. Firearm registration data from NSW Police Firearms Registry. Figures for 2016–2018 were provided under GIPA, with later years from Registry reporting BOCSAR data is reported on an April–March statistical year. Registry data is based on December/January NSWPF Firearms Registry licensing and ownership reports. Both series are aligned to the nearest year for trend comparison.
Understanding why requires acknowledging a distinction that is often blurred in public discussion. Legal firearm ownership and criminal misuse of firearms are not the same phenomenon. Australia’s licensing system requires background checks, registration of individual firearms, and strict storage obligations for licence holders. Criminal firearm violence, by contrast, is overwhelmingly associated with unlicensed individuals using unregistered firearms.
National statistics reinforce the trend.
According to the Australian Institute of Criminology’s most recent report, Homicide in Australia 2023–24, firearm homicide represents a relatively small proportion of overall homicide incidents and has not increased alongside the growth in registered firearms.
AIC reports Statistical Report 52 Homicide in Australia 2023–24
None of this suggests that firearm violence should be ignored, nor that it should cease to be a priority for law enforcement. Violent crime involving firearms is a serious issue and should continue to attract focused policing and enforcement efforts.
What the evidence does suggest, however, is that the policy discussion should be directed toward the criminal misuse of firearms and the illicit firearms market, rather than toward those who lawfully possess firearms under Australia’s licensing framework.
Public policy is best informed by a clear understanding of the available evidence. In this case, the data indicates that the relationship between lawful firearm ownership and violent crime is more nuanced than the commonly asserted claim that more firearms automatically translate into greater risk to public safety.